The upcoming week of 23.12.2024 – 29.12.2024 is the last regular trading week of the month and the year. On the night of December 24–25, Christians, mostly in Catholic countries, will celebrate Christmas, and the world will prepare to welcome the New Year 2025. There will be minimal macroeconomic data published during this time.
Besides, next week, trading volumes will be low, and the market will be thin.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: UK GDP.
- Tuesday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
- Wednesday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
- Thursday: Tokyo’s consumer price indexes.
- Friday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
- The key event of the week: Tokyo’s consumer price indexes.
Monday, December 23
07:00 – GBP: UK GDP for Q3 2024 (Final Estimate)
GDP is viewed as an indicator of the UK economy’s condition. The growing GDP indicator is considered positive for the British pound. The UK GDP rate was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum occurred. Subsequently, its growth decelerated, and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK GDP rate dropped.
Previous GDP values: +0.5% in Q2, +0.7% in Q1 2024, -0.3% in Q4, -0.1% in Q3, 0% in Q2, +0.2% in Q1 2023, +0.1% in Q4 2022, -0.1% in Q3, +0.1% in Q2, +0.5% in Q1 2022, +1.5% in Q4 2022.
The key factors that may force the Bank of England to keep the rate low include weak GDP, slow labor market growth, and low consumer spending. Should the GDP data fall significantly below previous values, the pound will face downward pressure. Conversely, high GDP readings will bolster the currency.
The preliminary estimate stood at +0.1%.
Tuesday, December 24
Pacific and Catholic countries celebrate Christmas. Markets and banks will be closed.
00:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the RBA is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
At the recent December 2024 meeting, the RBA paused again, keeping the interest rate unchanged at a 12-year high of 4.35% for the ninth consecutive meeting.
At the press conference after the meeting, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock stated that rates will remain at the same level for now and inflation and policy risks are “fairly balanced.”
Bullock stated that they «need to keep rates restrictive for the time being», while core inflation remains too high, the outlook is uncertain, and the risks of rising inflation persist.
Previously, Bullock mentioned that “inflation is still above our target, and it’s proving to be sticky.” Besides, inflation is “above the midpoint of the 2%–3% target range”, and the Reserve Bank Board suggests that “in the near term, it does not see interest rate cuts.”
Therefore, the RBA remains almost the only major central bank in the world that has explicitly stated that it will maintain a tight monetary policy stance.
If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.
Wednesday, December 25
Catholic countries in Europe and America celebrate Christmas. Markets and banks will be closed.
Thursday, December 26
There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released except for late afternoon GMT in Japan. In European and American countries will be a day off to celebrate Boxing Day (the day after Catholic Christmas). Banks and stock exchanges will be closed, leading to minimal trading volume in the Forex market.
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy
Tokyo’s consumer price indexes, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, gauge the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. These indexes are key indicators for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous values YoY:
- Tokyo CPI:: +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, December 27
There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released. Forex trading volumes will be minimal.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
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